The football season Europe-wide is slowly drawing to a close as we reach May, and it’s an excellent time to look back at some of the football betting strategies that I uncovered for use in the 2016/2017 season.
Here are some of the key football strategies you might like to consider for next season:
Lay the 0-0 halftime score
This is a great little niche I uncovered this season and is beloved of members of www.drt.club. If you want a shortcut to this strategy, then look only at matches where the favourite is priced at 1.2 decimal odds or lower (I am using decimals as I am specifically referring to betting exchanges when talking about laying, although you could back 0.5 goals first half with bookmakers).
A recent example saw Real Madrid at home to Almeria: 3-0 fulltime and 1-0 at halftime. This strategy can be made more profitable with use of the live betting markets.
The football banker bet
I have been delighted with the performance of my football banker bets (exclusive and free to readers of What Really Wins Money at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk).
Performance has been exceptional and I have a staking plan which I share with readers which sky-rockets the profits. Your mission, if you choose to accept it, is to go to www.betfair.com (my preference, although any bookmaker would do), and shortlist all major matches where the favourite is priced at 1.4 decimal odds or lower.
Using sites such as www.soccerstats.com, check out the recent form, head to heads, and simply justify the odds.
I can’t wait for the new season, having profited handsomely for What Really Wins Money readers since November 2014 to present. I wonder what kind of a profit we can get with a full season September–May under our belts?
In-play stats are the key to in-play profits
This was the greatest discovery of mine this season. Stats are freely available if you make use of bookmaker in-play betting facilities. www.bet365.com is perhaps the best bookmaker in terms of the provision of in-play stats. Betfair provides a live stream now for most matches. The key stats are available.
In-play stats can tell you whether there will be a goal, when a match is 0-0 for a while. Simply check out the shots on target and shots off target stats. In-play stats can help you to see whether an underdog scoring first is vulnerable to an equalizer by the market favourite.
Corners stats can show you attacking intent. Possession stats can show you who is dominating. If you want to see the power of in-play stats, then join www.drt.club where I have a number of very happy members who can attest to the power of in-play stats. (You can do it yourself of course.)
The losing sequences
One last distinction I made this season is to get an idea of how many games a team will tolerate without a win. What do I mean? Let’s take a look at Manchester City this season:
The losing sequences
One last distinction I made this season is to get an idea of how many games a team will tolerate without a win. What do I mean? Let’s take a look at Manchester City this season:
Notice from 10 January to 7 February, Manchester City went four games without a win, but corrected it in their very next match.
I have found that top-four sides in European leagues don’t tend to go more than five matches winless. This is something we can use for next season. I focus on the top four because wins are more precious for them, and losing streaks must be nipped in the bud.
I call this ‘sequencing’. It also works with major strikers who have not scored for a while and who play regularly for their teams. Messi ‘s longest sequence without a goal this season was three matches. I focus also on Ronaldo and Ibrahimovic: knowing their likely ‘tolerance’ for not scoring can give you a potential angle into any bet.
So those are the four football distinctions that stood out for me this season, to use for next season. I am also working on some ‘bet-and-go’ football bets which I hope to share with you for next season. Not everyone wants to trade the football.
Gone to the dogs
I keep being drawn back to greyhound racing. There must be an angle in? I am recording as many results as I can on an Excel spreadsheet, and what immediately grabs my attention is the poor performance of the favourites generally at morning race meetings. Is this just an anomaly or something we can exploit by laying (albeit in illiquid markets)?
I’ll report back when there are more results under my belt, but my initial reaction is that there is a laying angle in here, somewhere, somehow. I have shared with you a strategy in the past for backing greyhounds, and that is to back the three biggest-priced outsiders on Betfair in each race. Betfair’s markets tend to suit the backer rather than the layer, and the outsiders’ odds can be exaggerated as compared to the bookmakers. Something to think about!
Before we go…
Here’s a look at the Past Winners for some of the key races for tomorrow’s Punchestown meeting…
235 Punchestown – Think cross-country race, think Edna Bolger. It is Sizing Australia who has won the last two meetings though for De Bromhead. He runs again and must be worth an each-way support in this ‘horses for courses’ race. I would also back the shortest-priced Edna Bolger horse each way.
310 Punchestown – Only one favourite has won in the last ten runnings, and that was a joint-favourite. Winners with odds of 25/1, 16/1 and 14/1 in the last five runnings suggest we can speculate a bit more. I might take a punt on a Mullins horse here. He had a run of four winners on the trot, but no winner in three now. I would back a Mullins horse at double-figure odds each way (the market is not formed alas).
350 Punchestown – Annie Power is layable, although like Un Sceaux yesterday, Annie is likely to have no problems here, but you never know. Annie fell at Cheltenham when all out the winner, so she has form for falling! I would lay Annie just before the final fence if she is leading. You never know…
425 Punchestown – Willie Mullins has won this race for the last two years and runs Petite Parisienne and Buiseness Sivola. The latter features Ruby Walsh and, if over 4/1, is backable each way.
535 Punchestown – No favourite has won this in the last ten outings and it’s that man again, Willie Mullins, who has won four of the last six runnings. The field has not been finalized as yet at www.racingpost.com.
I would back a Mullins horse priced between 7/1–12/1 each way in this race. The horse is near the head of the market, but not favourite. Three of Mullins recent winners were 6/1, 9/1 and 7/1, so that kind of backs up this theory.
I hope you enjoy the May bank holiday weekend and Punchestown tomorrow.
Have a great weekend.
I hope you enjoy the May bank holiday weekend and Punchestown tomorrow.
Have a great weekend.