Andy shouts: ‘Howzaat!!’
Andy the Tiger Henman-Murray won a superb Wimbledon Final and in straight sets. Those following me on Twitter @whatreallywins would still have made a very good profit trading this match, despite the apparent one-sided nature of a 3-0 set victory.
First port of call was to lay the favourite: that was Djokovic, who duly lost the first set. The next step was to back the first set loser, which was Djokovic, who duly took a 4-1 lead in the 2nd set (and despite not winning the 2nd set, his apparent dominance in that 2nd set ensured another successful trade). I even layed Andy at 1.02 for a successful trade.
The next port of call for successful trading will be the football season. It should be a cracker.
Short-priced football teams still mean profits
Let me qualify what I mean by a short-priced team. I am talking about your Feyenoords and AZ Alkmaars of yesterday, who were backable at 1.03, meaning you will win a whopping £3 for your £100 investment.
But this need not put you off finding value. When I check the football at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk I always urge readers to look for goals. And last night – well, between them, these two teams scored 13 goals. Not quite the 79 and 67 I believe from those Nigerian sides (was John Fashanu playing?), but still a good effort all the same.
You will generally get a fair smattering of very short-odds teams, especially at this time of the season with the Europa League early rounds. And this idea that short odds translate into goals was well founded in the Europa League matches yesterday with typical scorelines including a 5-1, 9-0, 7-2, 5-0, and another 5-0.
So think goals.
You’ll notice this a lot now as we trundle slowly towards the start of the football season proper. It is a great way to get a value involvement in a football match you would normally shy away from.
I will always note these matches at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, so do look out for them.
Bookies? More like ‘BOOO-kies’
Are bookmakers really the pantomime villains? Or are there still some good ones about who offer great bets, allow you to place reasonable stakes, and don’t restrict you after a couple of winners?
I’d love your feedback.
We’re doing a little report on bookmakers’ good and bad points and would like to hear your experiences of the dreaded foe. So get emailing to firstname.lastname@example.org with your stories and experiences, good and bad.
From Sandown to Newmarket
Some of the stats from the PAST WINNERS section of the Racing Post worked very well at Sandown last weekend, particularly, I found, in avoiding favourites where the patterns were strong.
I managed to get the 1-2 in the Eclipse as well.
I’ll have a go at today’s and tomorrow’s card at Newmarket, as it is a strong card.
I’ll go race by race and try to decipher the strong patterns from the last 11 races. So here goes.
1.40 Newmarket Only three favourites have won in the last 11 runnings. Apart from 3 winners at 10/1, 20/1 and 66/1, the general trend has been for winners priced at 8/1 and lower. There are 5 of those as I write: Dream Wild, Indignant, Jubilante, Nardin and Tantshi.
Horses below 9 stone have won 4 of the last 5 runnings, so that dismisses Sorella Bella, Indignante and Supernova Heights.
English jockeys have dominated this race recently, so 2, 3, 4, 6, 11, and 14 if you think that trend will continue.
This leaves Jubilante and Nardin as the two plays if these trends continue.
2.10 Newmarket This is a Group 2 race, and with 8 runners, is ideal for each way thievery. The favourite has won on 6 occasions, over 50%, and in 2 of the last 3 runnings.
There have been 3 winners at 12/1, 14/1, and 14/1 but the norm is for winners 7/2 and lower. There have been 7 of those. So despite the each way credentials (I don’t have access to the places in previous years to determine the prices of placed horses), it seems market leaders dominate.
Al Zarooni won with Gamilati 2 years ago at 14/1. In light of what we know, that could be an anomaly.
6 of the last 8 winning jockeys have been foreign (I am counting Frankie Dettori as ‘foreign’).
Four horses under 10/1 I think should be concentrated on for win purposes: Rizeena, Bye Bye Birdie, Queen Catrine, and Fig Roll.
Fig Roll and Queen Catrine have the foreign jockeys, if you think the Brits will fluff their lines, and both of these are backable each way so you get a payout for the place. The favourite does have a slightly better than 50% chance of winnings.
2.40 Newmarket This is a four-runner Group 1 race and I am not sure how big the fields have been in the past, because the last two winners have been in double figures. If this continues, Purr along is the only candidate here.
Four runners might skew previous stats which tell us to avoid the favourite – the fav has won just one of the last six runnings. Horses carrying 9-5 have won the last two runnings, so that favours Elusive Kate and Giofra. Incidentally Giofra won this last year.
The last 11 winning jockeys have all been other-than-Brits, which dismisses Elusive Kate.
3.20 Newmarket A 20-runner Heritage Handicap should normally be glossed over. The last favourite to win was in 2002: since then we have had winners between 11/2 and 12/1, apart from two. Only two horses have won carrying 9 stone or more in the last 10 years.
Discount horses 1, 2, 3, 4.
A toughie and unlikely we’ll find the winner, but it is clear that favourites have a tough time: horses priced 12/1 and lower tend to have the best of it in the winner’s enclosure.
3.50 Newmarket A Maiden Race where only 4 of the last 11 winners have been favourites. Three double-figure winners in the last four runnings. A favourite won last time out so the probability of a fav winning again diminishes.
Hannon has won this race four times, and saddles Edge and Expert. The early market favours Edge.
Saeed Bin Suroor has won this race twice and saddles True Story.
No prices yet, but look perhaps at opposing the favourite with an outsider – Expert for Hannon fits the bill based on the betting forecast and the record of Hannon in this race (25% strike rate in last 11 years ).
4.25 Newmarket This is an eight-runner Maiden Race, so again, each way betting is advised. Two of the last four winners have been 66/1 and 25/1, so watch out! Last two winners were 7/2 and 9/2, nearer the head of the market and backable each way. The last favourite to win came in 2004, followed by the 7/2 joint-favourite last time out. They don’t inspire.
The market, as ever, will dictate matters in this Maiden. Early prices are unavailable as I write.
The Racing Post betting forecast posts the outsider at only 16/1. I usually interpret this as being a sign that none of the eight runners can reasonably be discounted. Perhaps we should avoid the favourite here. The betting forecast points to four horses under 12/1.
Are those the ones to focus on, as they would have been in the last two races, or can we back two big-priced outsiders each way, in the hope that they are competitive in a race of many debutants? Based on the betting forecast (which is not reflective of the live betting market, especially in a Maiden), I would chance Gold Medal and Mount Macedon, based only on their position in the betting forecast. I would back them each way and look for the kind of shocks which occurred in 2009 and 2010 when we saw a 25/1 and 66/1 winner.
5.35 Newmarket Nine runners should immediately trigger your each-way reflexes. This Class 3 Handicap seems to be another toughie for the favourite to win, having backed 1st place only three times in 11 years. There was a 50/1 winner in 2011 but a 7/1 and 9/1 winner either side. They suggest where we might look for an each way play if we take that 50/1 winner to be an anomaly?
Horses under 9 stone have a poor record, so if that continues, Henry the Aviator, Azma and Exotic Guest are three to avoid. The second-last outsider is priced at only 12/1 in the betting forecast which reflects the competitive nature of this race.
The probable favourite, Bassara, is on a four-timer, and with each consecutive race will find it more difficult to continue the winning run. The rule I use is ‘the longer the run, the nearer it is to ending’. Do you think Bassara has one more hurrah in him, or will the poor runnings of the favourites in this race leave him vulnerable?
Look perhaps, judging by recent form, on a horse 7/1-9/1 each way in the hope this apparent strong favourite falls foul.
With three races featuring 8 or 9 runners, why not focus on these 3 – as was suggested last week – and look for an each way treble? You are focusing on races where each way betting is ideal (a horse only has to beat five others to see a return in an eight-runner race). An each way treble will pay out rather well for a win and two places.
I will look at Saturday’s Newmarket past winners and post them at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk. I will have access to the betting markets then, which I hope will allow for greater accuracy.
I hope to be on Twitter this weekend (@whatreallywins). The horse racing market reading was particularly strong on Tuesday and Wednesday, so pop along if you can. If the betting markets are accurate, we’ll be in for a nice run of wins and placed each way horses.
I’m off now to watch Manchester United do an open training day as part of their pre-season shennanigans this afternoon. It should be interesting. I will look with interest particularly at Anderson and Rooney, as I believe there is a cake shop near the stadium, and if they find out, they’ll be calling today ‘The Bakewell Massacre’.